The Play Book: A War Over “Change”

60 days out of Election Day, Barack Obama can’t afford to take the Palin bait

The finale of the GOP Convention last Thursday in St. Paul signified a number of dramatic changes to this election cycle. First, with the surprise pick of Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as McCain’s running mate, the Republican party has found a new and exciting figure to rally around. As her blistering acceptance speech on Wednesday night shows, Gov. Palin can pack a punch and, perhaps more importantly, she offers key conservative credentials to the GOP ticket. Governor Palin will undoubtedly be a permanent fixture in the conservative’s hall of fame, even if she were to fail this Fall.

But where the GOP Convention was heavy on drama and excitement, it was noticeably light on substance. There was no talk of the economy or combating the growing Russian appetite for spherical authority. There were few policy positions and certainly no five point plans to mull over. In other words, it was precisely what the McCain camp wanted: it was a platform of narratives, which it believes is the key to winning independent voters this Fall. The McCain camp has hedged it’s bets that their candidate’s stories – and not their positions – will be the guide to victory in 08, and it might just work.

Gov. Palin has wowed the Republican base, but her reception among independents has yet to be seen

Here’s a look at what we should expect of each campaign as we head into the 60 day ‘home stretch’:

JOHN MCCAIN

Deviate yourself from Bush, but not the base
John McCain did an interesting thing at the beginning of his acceptance speech Thursday, which has been generally considered an underwhelming performance by commentators and pundits (but honestly, what could one expect after Gov. Palin’s revolutionary speech – more on her later). In a moment that will surely be used in Democratic attack ads later in the Fall, John McCain paid tribute President Bush for leading us “through these dark days” after September 11.

A risky move.

The rest of McCain’s acceptance speech seemed to recognize the political risk involved with getting too cozy with the most unpopular president in modern American history. McCain laid out a sweeping – if not vague – new face to conservatism, a decisive movement away from the admitted failure of Bush policies towards a “bi-partisan” and “reform” oriented administration. His shout-out to Bush is significant in that it highlights the fine balance the McCain campaign must strike between consolidating the GOP base (most of whom still love the President) and reaching out to independents and Democrats who aren’t exactly enamored with the Republican party at the moment.

McCain is waging a tricky campaign to get voters to forget about the last eight years (“economic troubles? what economic troubles!?”). This is best highlighted in campaign manager Rick Davis’ statement that this election will be about narratives, and not about issues. Translation: make McCain and Palin likeable enough to voters to win over their trust. This is straight out of the 2000 and 2004 Republican playbook, and given the GOP’s recent record in presidential campaigns, the Democrats can not afford to sidestep the likeability campaign.

Sarah Barracuda, the real change agent?
What happens when a fresh-faced, gun-toting, baby-feeding, lifelong NRA member bursts on to the Republican spotlight and promises to ‘break some china’ in Washington?

Magic.

The Republicans struck gold (or was it oil?) in finding Sarah Palin. And Democrats can argue amongst themselves all they want about the motives or the perceived gender politics behind the selection (as I myself have done), but it doesn’t really matter: Governor Palin is here and she’s here to stay. And the selection was brilliant. Who better to run with an oratorically challenged, slightly boring, and politically moderate John McCain than a fiery young and attractive “reformer?”

Palin accomplishes two critical tasks for the ticket: she closes the enthusiasm gap that existed within the party and, more strategically, she rounds out a new campaign message to America – that John McCain stands for change.

By now, McCain has used so many campaign messages that it’s getting difficult to remember them all. This “change” message is new, and it has somehow struck a chord with Republicans who are wise enough to distance themselves from the president  but willing to seize on Senator Obama’s wildly popular campaign message. So far, it has worked with the die-hard Republican crowd – it has yet to be tested against more discerning moderates and McCain has yet to back up this message of change with more solid policy. As Obama is quick to point out, McCain voted with the administration 90% of the time in the last 8 years – That doesn’t bode well for a message of ‘change.’

BARACK OBAMA

Focus on the economy
New numbers came out yesterday morning showing that unemployment has reached a five year high. Obama was quick to pin this as the latest example of how Republicans are simply unable to grapple with the economy, and it is a compelling argument. The economy is in a tailspin, and while more and more Americans are jobless – John McCain wants to talk about narratives. This is an important difference between the two campaigns that Obama must not (and so far has not) ignore. To play up the difference, Obama should continue pushing his middle class tax cut, which is supposed to alleviate tax burdens on working families while ending the generous corporate tax breaks on America’s largest companies during the Bush era. It will also show that Obama is tough on the economy, and has real solutions to what has so far become the Republicans’ Achilles heel.

Sen. Biden (D-DE) would be smart not to condescend or attack Palin

If Obama strikes the economy while the iron is hot, we can reasonably expect him to win some confidence of middle class voters who are shaky over the economy. Remember, these voters are looking for real solutions, not the sort of political red meat that dominated the GOP convention.

Ignore Palin
Nobody can rightfully deny the star-power that Palin has amassed within the Republican party in the last few days. That said, it would be wise of the Obama campaign to let that play out as it will. Palin is looking for a fight. Republicans would love nothing more than to see Obama lock fists with their freshly minted self proclaimed “bulldog”. If Obama allows that (through either himself or Biden), it simply undermines the luster around his candidacy. Engaging in Palin’s attacks will make Obama look, well…small.

And that is the brilliance behind the Palin selection. McCain certainly threw a curve ball to the Obama campaign. Obama was right to condemn the media frenzy surrounding Palin’s pregnant daughter. It was also right to refrain from bashing her perceived inexperience at foreign policy. I suspect the Obama team understands that an attack on Palin will only fan the flames on the Republican side of the aisle, and they are too focused on what will actually win them this election: undecided moderate voters.

With the addition of Palin, we saw the McCain camp take a hard turn to the right before making a predictable turn to the center. As Obama hones in on his arguments as to why he is indeed the veritable agent of change (and has been since the beginning, not since it was discovered that the issue polls well), I suspect we will see that he is well ahead of the Republicans in winning over Independents, and thus comfortably ahead in the polls.

The Play Book: GOP’s Gender Politics

Before I begin my argument as to why Sen. John McCain’s VP pick is actually good news for Democrats, I want to pose a very simple question:

If this one term Governor of Alaska, former mayor of a town of 9,000, with zero – not limited – ZERO foreign policy experience was a man – would John McCain have picked him to be only a heartbeat away from the Oval Office? Second in command?

I’ll leave that to you to answer. On with my argument.

McCain’s choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska is supposed to be an upsetting one to Democrats. The McCain inner circle was no doubt giddy at the prospect of “sticking it to” Democrats who have lauded their propulsion of a highly qualified and trailblazing woman – Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton – to the forefront of political debate. With a female at the helm of McCain’s presidential bid – Americans the world over will similarly laud the Republican campaign for it’s devotion to women’s rights and equality, right? Right?

In her coming-out speech, Palin mentioned that Hillary Clinton put 18 million cracks in the hardest glass ceiling and that women everywhere can now “shatter that ceiling.” Translation: “Clinton did the hard work and now I can play the gender card to translate some of those votes into McCain votes”

Democrats should be encouraged by the McCain camp’s strategy of reacting to what is going on in the Dem’s side of the aisle. It means that Democrats are still leading the national dialogue. I’ll be bold here and say that there is no way that Governor Palin, as well-spoken and as polished as she is, would have EVER made the VP ticket with the very man who has made routine bashing of Senator Barack Obama’s purported lack of foreign policy credentials a pillar of his campaign if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic VP pick.

The selection of Governor Sarah Palin is a rouse and comedic political stagecraft to any smart and self-respecting Clinton supporter. To think that you can put just any woman on a ticket and expect to get the same amount of support that took Hillary Clinton 35 years  of public service, 8 years in the White House, and 23 victorious presidential primary races to earn is nothing short of insulting. Sarah Palin has nothing on Hillary Rodham Clinton.

But what is insulting to me doesn’t rule out a victory. It will be interesting to see how women feel about this latest bit of classic McCain reactionary strategy. For the short run, at least, Democrats should take comfort in knowing that McCain appears to still be one step behind them, trying to salvage whatever supporter defects from their ranks.

At the very least, it puts the question of experience – so central to Senator McCain’s argument against Senator Obama – off the table. Can he honestly paint the Obama-Biden ticket as inexperienced after he brings Palin on board? It may not be impossible – but it will surely be difficult, and that is more good news for Democrats.

Familiar, New Lines Drawn in ‘Vida la Vida’

We’ve heard the arguments made by Coldplay’s vocal detractors many times before: the senseless lyrics, the dramatic flair (‘is that an organ i’m hearing!?’), Chris Martin’s insistence on being compared to U2, the Beatles, and other untouchables, among a long laundry list of others. While each point carries its own degree of truth, few can deny that Coldplay’s hit-making formula has served them well. Very well.

In the British rock quartet’s fourth album Viva La Vida or Death and All His Friends, thoughtful, mid-tempo numbers draw upon their trademark sound while changing up some things from their last album debut in 2004 – X&Y. The album is an effort by the band to embrace experimentation and break from the formula that defined their previous albums. The results are mixed – which is good news for fans of that sound.

The album’s experimental thesis lies in it’s opening track ‘Life in Technicolor,’ a two minute instrumental slowly building tempo and punctuated by a stylistic  holler from Martin. Just as we approach what feels like a climax, the track abruptly ends. Surely they’re teasing us, right? My interest is picqued.

What follows doesn’t disappoint. Coldplay infuses elements of the fiddle, the organ, and hand clapping to create a sound with the same gravity as before, but happier. Sure, some of the tracks (‘Cemeteries of London,’ ‘42,’ ‘Death and All His Friends’) sound and feel like the same old depressing Coldplay. Fortunately, they are complemented by uplifting and rather catchy tracks as ‘Viva La Vida’ (the album’s first single), ‘Yes,’ and ‘Lovers in Japan’

I used to rule the world / seas would rise when I gave the word / now in the morning I sleep alone / sweep the streets I used to roam – ‘Viva La Vida’

‘Viva La Vida’ is definitive not only because it is the first single of the album (a song that radio stations will surely inundate us with this summer), it is perhaps Martin’s best vocal performance. Similar to ‘Fix You’ and ‘Speed of Sound’ in X&Y and ‘Clocks’ in A Rush of Blood to the Head, ‘Viva La Vida’ is at the emotional heart of Martin’s current project. The sound of drums and a symphony of strings send this song into that lofty field of musical drama and self-importance that have won Coldplay it’s fair share of deep admirers and cynics.

You might be a big fish in a little pond / doesn’t mean you’ve won / ‘cus along will come a bigger one / and you’ll be lost – ‘Lost!’

Although ‘Viva La Vida’ is going to get all of the air play this summer, ‘Lost!’ is bound to be the band’s next hit. More catchy than any of it’s peers, ‘Lost!’ combines the organ, drums, and hand clapping to create an uncharacteristically upbeat and airy sound. It isn’t full of itself. It isn’t anthemic. It’s simply happy.

Viva La Vida or Death and All His Friends won’t win Coldplay any new fans, and it’s goal of producing a whole new experimental sound is only half developed.  It won’t bury the band’s reputation for drama or silly lyrics. It does, however, present a faithful reincarnation of a sound to which we’ve grown familiar.

To a fan who wants Coldplay to keep with its roots, there is nothing more you could ask for.

Viva La Vida or Death and All His Friends is out in stores now.

********************************************

Why you’ll love it: how often do your ears get relief from the same old recycled Coldplay songs on the radio? This is NEW stuff. Also, it’s catchy and a solid addition to the Coldplay library.

Why you’ll hate it: you always hated Coldplay to begin with.

McCain Campaign Aide: Terrorist Attack Would Help McCain

A senior advisor to U.S. Senator John McCain’s campaign told Fortune Magazine in an interview that another terrorist attack on American soil “would be a big advantage for him.” Charlie Black has since expressed regret for making the remarks.

It’s good to hear somebody stands to benefit from another terrorist attack.

Grab Your Children, Run for the Hills – Gay Marriage is Underway

On June 16, 2008 – The end of the world begins. And it begins in California.

That’s because today the State of California begins legally sanctioning same-sex marriage. And in a particularly cruel blow to straight people everywhere, they even have the nerve to call it marriage! No more of that civil-union-separate-but-equal-consolation-prize-bullshit we’ve been feeding gays in America to shut them up.

No, no: we’ve gone to new levels now. We’re in unchartered territory. The territory that allows two living human beings to acknowledge a very real and strong thread that we all share as humans: love.

Gay, straight, Christian, Atheist, black, brown, poor, wealthy, guilty, innocent, and lonely human beings. What do they all have in common? The capacity to love, among other things.

Some people, however, are distracted by another human commonality: the capacity to hate. They fix their attention on the ‘immoral’ or the ‘devious’ view of a love that does not look or sound like their own. They howl at and condemn human beings they do not even know for cementing their feelings for someone of the same sex.

These same people tell us in church, on the news, and in rallies that gay marriage will break family values. This argument is uttered, without the slightest sense of irony, as the opposite-sex-marriage failure rate hovers above 50%, as Britney Spears gets a straight marriage annulled faster than it takes Bill O’Reilly to get off by phone sex, and church after church after church is rocked with a new scandal.

We can blame gays (who are making an honest and very human move forward with their love) for our repeated failure to raise families and marriages correctly. In the end, love conquers hate. We can find evidence of this in a new CBS nationwide poll, which finds more and more Americans believe that gays deserve some sort of legal recognition – and over 30% of Americans believe that gay marriage should be legal; the highest percentage ever recorded since CBS began conducting the poll in 2004 (source).

The tide is turning. Elements of our society will scream and kick and resist, but in the end – it lurches forward. It progresses. You can either choose to love or to hate. For the interim, I guess, run for the hills.

Shit’s going down in California.

The Play Book: Al Gore, Where Are You?

After her death-defying victories on Tuesday night in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, Hillary Clinton made it perfectly clear that she intends to stay in this race until the end.

Now, being a voter with a small soft-spot for Clinton, this makes me happy. Why shouldn’t she stay in the race, one can wonder. After all, this is by no means a done deal for Senator Barack Obama – who leads in both popular vote count and in pledged delegates but faced considerable challenges in Ohio that are likely to be repeated in delegate rich Pennsylvania. The Clinton campaign can argue – and with mounting evidence – that Obama simply can not capture the big states that are critical to a Democratic victory, most notably Ohio and Florida. Clinton not only maintained her hold on female and Hispanic voters on Tuesday, she increased her leads in every age group among whites and even managed to beat Obama among educated voters. The paradigm had shifted in Ohio, and the Clinton camp smells blood.

However convincing that argument may be, the numbers don’t lie – and the numbers are clearly and unmistakably on Obama’s side – for now.

Hence the dilemma in the Democratic Party. A victim of its own defective rules, the party is now faced with a historically unprecedented stalemate and the signs suggest things are only going to get uglier before they get better. With no real reason for either of the two candidates to back out (minus the silly reason we’ll be bombarded with in the media – the ’sake of the party’), what are we Democrats to do?

Al Gore. We need you.

We know you’d rather not get involved with politics this time around (we still remember how you endorsed Dean four years ago and how badly that turned out) but trust us, this time is different.

You see, Al, we’re in a small pickle here. Two squabbling candidates who are about to wage an all out war while John McCain (who, by the way, reached life expectancy last month) watches in pure unadulterated glee as his dirty work is done for him. The only reason we’ll lose in November Al is because of ourselves. Honestly.

I might not like the person you endorse, but at least it’ll put an end to things. Like a small baby that gets a shot, it’ll scream and it’ll cry but at the end of the day the shot was necessary and the baby is going to be stronger for it. The Democratic Party is the sick baby, Al, and yes, you guessed it – YOU are the shot.

Innoculate us from ourselves, Al. Endorse somebody and do it quickly. Otherwise we’ll have to look to ourselves to manage this heaping pile of hysteria and trust me, nobody wants that.

Hope! Love! Republicans! Dude, Where’s My Democratic Party?

It’s not easy being a Hillary Clinton supporter these days. Ask any of us (although good luck finding us – we don’t have those hippie chants or those flashy facebook photos. Telling people my age that I support Hillary is an experience rivaled only by my coming-out process two years ago).

Oh no. We Hillary supporters are a dwindling yet proud lot, and we have been through a lot. There was that golden era (basically anything before Iowa) when we were allowed to trumpet our support from the high hills of political destiny. That stretch between January 2007 and election day 2008 wasn’t so much as a contest as it was a warm-up, so we believed – tasty hour d’ouvre to whet our appetite for Clintonian budget surpluses, a rebranding of American foreign policy, and a recapturing of the luster and prosperity of the 1990’s.

Then Iowa happened.
Then Bill Clinton.
Then South Carolina.
Then everything between February 5 and today.

And as if Hillary’s political downfall wasn’t painful enough for us so-called HillBlazers (I won’t call it a defeat yet, thank you Ohio and Texas), there’s been this annoying buzzing in our ear. You know you’ve heard it. It’s emitted from the throngs of activists, fanatics, hippie-wannabes, and other innocent victims of recent legendary campaign messaging; “Yes We Can!”

Yes. We. Can. Three simple words go so far to epitomize the length the Obama campaign has gone to wrap us Democrats in a warm fuzzy blanket of words and promises. It feels good. I’m not going to lie – even I have been tempted to steal a touch of that blanket. But alas, I’m stuck out in the coldness of my chosen candidate’s rhetoric. I’m looking around for George Clooney or Jake Gylenhaal or ANYBODY cool to make this god-awful campaign a bit less boring, but then I remember they’re all with Obama too. Instead I guess I’ll settle for Madeline Allbright or Barbra Streisand (on the topic of 1990’s luster, be careful what you wish for).

In our defense, we’ve tried to create slogans of our own to match the pizzaz of Obama-mania like:
“OUR HEALTH PLAN COVERS ALL AMERICANS!”
or
“OUR FIVE POINT PLAN YIELDS THE GREATEST LONG TERM ECONOMIC RETURN!”
or
“BITCH IS THE NEW BLACK!”

All of them have fallen on deaf ears. And why is that? Well, simply put, they suck. But more importantly, the Democratic party is having a moment right now. It is too busy chartering peace-love brigades and allowing itself to be enveloped by delusions of ‘new politics’ that can only be ushered in by one man and one man only. We’ve thrown issues to the curb because – quite frankly – issues are boring. Issues are for politicians, and we’re in a movement here. Why deal with the divisiveness of issues when we have hope, one might ask. Our moment is now.

As much as I disagree with it, the movement appears to be winning and the possibility of Hillary Clinton being its latest victim looms great. I, like all my faithful HillBlazer colleagues, trudge forward, fooling ourselves into thinking that Texas and Ohio will produce some sort of miracle or at least enough of a reality shot for this deranged pack of Democrats we sit with.

As Hillary herself goes down, we only hope that Obama and his followers learn three things going forward – for the good of this Party and this country:

1) Trying to please everyone means you’re going to please no one. Obama, stop telling us you’re going to unite Democrats and Republicans. Please. It’s a nice idea but it has two main problems. First, what the hell makes you think any self-respecting conservative is going to jump in line to work with you? Hope? Second, what is the value of working with Republicans anyway? Working with Republicans means compromising a whole lot of the promises you’ve made. I’m totally a fan of compromise, don’t get me wrong, but I know it comes at a price and quite frankly I don’t compromise is a price Democrats should be complacent with right now.

2) Stake your claim. Ok, not all of us love Hillary. In fact, some of us hate Hillary. There is one thing that we can all agree on, however – Hillary stakes her claim on issues. Sometimes this works out for the worst, but most the time it works out for the best. Take health care, for instance. Obama says he supports universal health care (thus pissing off conservatives), but fails to act on it (thus failing Democrats). He gives us instead this luke-warm, half-assed health plan that so obviously tries to offend NO ONE. Hillary puts it all out there – health care for everyone. Maybe this won’t actually happen, but she sets the bar for negotiation pretty high. Fear of offending someone does not yield results, staking your claim does.

3) For the love of god, stop with the words. Look I hate to be a kill-joy, but words really are a dime a dozen in this city. And I know that was said a lot by Hillary Clinton to belittle your inexperience and your reliance on dreamy (if not empty) rhetoric. But with Hillary pretty much out now, its no less true. Hope doesn’t get food on the table, Barack. Hope doesn’t alleviate my college debt. And even if it did, great. I’m still looking for a President, and unless you intend on instating a Secretary of Hope, you’re going to need to base your decisions on things other than that four lettered word…so how about we cut to the chase, deal?

It’s with a great deal of doubt and insecurity that I watch our Democratic go into battle armed with a really beautiful website and lots of nifty chants. But hey, perhaps I’m being too hard on Obama. Like Clinton, perhaps Obama has stuff up his sleeve for the coming general election. Until then, Obama supporters need to get real about the message we as Democrats are about to send to America. But first, they need to get their nearest Clinton supporter a drink…

They’re going to need it.

The Play Book: Thoughts on Super Tuesday

The numbers for Super Tuesday are in, and here is some post-election analysis on what we saw, and what we can expect to see in this protracted Democratic race for the White House. Also, I take a chance and make one more final prediction as to who I think will finally (if inevitably) come out on top.

HILLARY CLINTON

Faced with an inspiring, well spoken, and ever-surging opponent, I’d say you made out pretty well yesterday Hillary. Let’s forget for a moment that you held double digit leads two weeks ago in much of the areas that you won by either a few points or in the tens last night – the fact that you were able to halt (if only temporarily) Obama’s new-all star cast of endorsements and media surge in the last few weeks says something of the endurance of your campaign. Yesterday you did exactly what you needed to do: get all of the major delegate rich states (California, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey), keep the latino and female votes in your favor, and continue carving out delegates where you can.

Outlook: Hillary’s victory won’t be found in her lead on delegates (which she has), but in her ability to stemy Obama’s surge. With the two of them in a clear dead-heat now, it comes down to endurance. I wouldn’t say this is to Hillary’s advantage necessarily. Obama has many influential surrogates campaigning for him and (more importantly) he has not even tapped out of his donor base yet, ensuring that he has the funds to wage an all-out battle in the remaining primary states. But, money and organization are not things the Clinton camp are without either.

What Needs to Happen: Based on the numbers that are now coming in from Super Tuesday, Clinton held the lead in the following areas: the latino vote, the female vote, the urban metropolitan vote, and (in the South) the white vote. Indeed, it came down to latina women in California to carry Clinton to her ten point victory in that treasure trove of delegates. This works to her advantage in the big blue states of California, Massachusetts, and New York (with the notable exception of Illinois- Obama’s home state), but she is seriously lagging in the less-populated and rural states – much of which have yet to vote. In the coming weeks, Clinton needs to place her focus on the economy, where polls are showing that voters trust her over her opponent to lead the country out of a possible recession.

Where She Has the Advantage: Women, women, women. Also, voters who prize experience in a President and who believe the economy should be the nation’s #1 issue. (source: CNN)

Where She Has the Disadvantage: the black vote, the youth vote, the male vote. Also, voters who believe change is more important than experience. (source: CNN)

BARACK OBAMA

You were truly in a race against time for Super Tuesday votes, and something tells us that if it were held just one week later, the outcome would have been drastically different. In a matter of weeks, you were able to erase and in some cases reverse double digit deficits in states like New Jersey and California. There was litte doubt that you and your campaign had the momentum going into Super Tuesday, so how well did you fare? Well, you lost California, Massachusetts, and New York – but that was kind of expected. In fact, you could probably claim a victory in how you were able to get within spitting distance of Clinton in some of these states. The true victory of yesterday, Barack: delegates. You see, winning those big states does a lot for media momentum but let’s get one thing straight: this race is about delegates. Clinton can bask in the light of her victories in the populated states, but so long as you keep sharing the delegates with her, you may just have the last laugh.

Outlook: Obama’s situation is far from dire coming out of Super Tuesday. Indeed, he has reason to smile – in the next week and a half the Democrats have primaries in Maryland, Virginia, DC, Washington, Nebraska, and Louisiana. He is expected to win all of those contests except for Virginia and Washington, meaning the momentum should again rest with his campaign. Hillary will probably have a hard time sustaining four defeats after her ‘big victory’ on Super Tuesday, but lest we forget this is a race for delegates, not states. So long as Obama can keep a convincing enough lead in his favored states and come close enough to Clinton in delegate rich states, his long term plan will most likely pay off.

What Needs to Happen: Leave no state behind. He hasn’t done it yet and I don’t see it happening any time soon. Obama is really good at nipping Clinton in the heels (no pun intended) in states where she has leads and clobbering her where she has weaknesses. The Obama camp needs to play down his losses in the big blue states and focus on the delegate count, which is still too close to call for either candidate. Also, exit polls show that Obama leads Clinton among voters who believe the war in Iraq is the #1 issue. And here lies Clinton’s Achilles heel: if Obama drives home the fact that he has opposed the war from the beginning, Clinton will be forced into the defensive. As history tells us: when that happens, Obama wins.

Where He Has the Advantage: the black vote (95% in Illinois!!!), the male vote, and the youth vote (a 2-1 lead in most states).

Where He Has the Disadvantage: Obama keeps struggling in big cities and heavily populated states (again, with the exception of Chicago and Illinois). Also, his support among women is sporadic at best.

A CAMPAIGN THAT DOESN’T FIT THE TIME

Of course, no candidate sealed the deal last night, but I would say that one’s outlook is much better than the other’s. Hillary Clinton really needed a convincing delegate victory last night to coast into any sort of convincing front-runner status. That didn’t happen (some could argue it never would happen). With all of her victories last night, she finds herself on almost the same level as Barack Obama this morning in terms of delegate counts. This could be seen as a defeat for Clinton for one big reason:

Hillary’s campaign is tired.

No, no. I don’t mean that it’s exhausted of it’s resources or organization. Lord knows she has lots of both. I mean to say, I’m not sure that the admittedly old-school style of Hillary’s campaign will ever seal the deal in this increasingly grass-roots primary season. Clinton’s strategy would work extraordinarily well if the Democratic races were winner-take-all. But since it comes down to delegates, she is forced to compete with Obama in every single state and to explain every last nuanced policy stance in every single issue or risk being outpaced entirely. You can tell from her talking points and the words in her victory speeches that she wants so badly to rise above Obama; focusing her attention on Bush and the Republicans. While this is what I admire most about Hillary (her focus on the true target), it’s also not reality at the moment. She can not rise above Obama rhetorically right now because she doesn’t have the delegate counts to prove it. Equal footing with Obama is not something I believe the Clinton campaign ever anticipated this late in the game.

That said, I believe Obama is better situated right now for a prolonged delegate fight. His campaign rhetoric is more flexible (“hope” “change” “tomorrow”) and can be more easily molded to various states than Hillary’s stately “experience” argument. Hillary’s biggest enemy right now is her own self-image: we’re in a mud fight for delegates and it remains to be seen whether or not Hillary is willing to get her crown dirty.

But, true to form, Hillary won’t go down without a fight and if it were to come down to a brokered convention, I don’t think there is a soul on this planet more suitable to win over super delegates than Hillary Rodham Clinton.

PROJECTION: Clinton v. McCain

My Choice for President

Super Tuesday is nearly a week away, and for the first time in a very long time, California voters will actually matter as the two top Democratic contenders – Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton – come to the West Coast in a near-tie for delegates.As the presidential campaign rolls into our backyard, it’s very important for Californians (indeed, all Americans) to think about what is best for this country – our economy, our security, our position on the global stage, our ability to be trusted by the world, our health care system, our treatment of our own citizens, our treatment of all humans (citizens or not), repairing the damage wrought by the arrogance and deliberate disregard of truth by the current administration that runs deep and wide. It’s no secret that I firmly believe only a Democratic president can truly bring forth the change that America needs to get back on the right track – the road to prosperity, peace, equality, and growth. The question is, which of the two candidates can shift the paradigm in Washington, knowing that ‘change’ isn’t something that can be delivered with pomp and circumstance in the halls of Congress, but with a steady commitment to overhaul that which has plagued our nation for eight long years and in some cases longer.


It is my belief that no one is better equipped or proven to stand ready for what is certain to be a long, ugly, and resistful campaign for change in Washington, D.C. than Hillary Rodham Clinton. There are many reasons why I support Hillary for president, I’ll present the top three for the sake of condensing the argument.

#1) Experience and Change are Not Mutually Exclusive - It has often been portrayed in this race that Democrats have a choice between experience or change – with Sen. Obama as the candidate for change, and Sen. Clinton as the candidate for experience. While I think there is definitely reason behind the labeling, I believe it is fundamentally untrue and potentially dangerous for Democrats to believe that you can only have one without the other. While it is absolutely true that Obama makes a very compelling case for change in a way that only a Washington outsider can do, I personally believe that to make real change – change that is written down in law and everlasting – can only be done by a President with the patience and the knowledge of the system. Now, I don’t doubt that an Obama presidency would do everything it could to make change and correct the Bush legacy of division, the candidate himself has yet to be proven in times of heated resistance. If it’s one thing we know about Hillary, it’s that she is willing to put everything into a fight – and that’s a quality I think is essential for pitching a protracted and resistful campaign for real change. It will take years to push change through our government, not the length of a presidential campaign. In this case, there is value to experience and knowing the process to achieve the goal. 

#2) The Emperor Does, In Fact, Have Clothes Hillary gets a lot of shit from press and pundits alike. There are a lot of Republicans who loathe her. There are a lot of Democrats who aren’t too keen on her either. This is due to a mixture of faults – not all Hillary’s – and three decades of close media scrutiny on the Clintons. We’ve come to a point where all Hillary or Bill need to do is breathe differently or accidentally fart in public and the media and skeptics wonder what kind of strategy they’re cooking up and then proceed to talk for hours about the meaning of the sigh or the fart. “There’s Billary at it again, up to no good!” Its one part ridiculous, and equal part sensationalist: a painful relic of the Republican Revolution and how a blowjob steered this country’s politics – for over a year’s time – away from issues of actual consequence to Americans and towards a fruitless impeachment trial stained with divisive and polarizing rhetoric. If people want to subscribe to sensationalism, that’s entirely their prerogative and I am certainly not one to change them. But consider this: after all the shit thats been thrown, all the conspiracies that have been cooked up to explain her success, and the nasty, dirty, shameful, and dishonest vitriol that has been flung at her – Hillary is still standing.

This isn’t about victimizing Hillary, this is about recognizing a determined leader when I see one. Perhaps we will disagree about her motives or her reasons for standing in this arena (is it self centeredness? is it a love for her country? is it something else to prove?), but at the end of the day, Hillary will be there – like it or not. She’s been through the wringer and we know how she comes out: on top. And as a Democrat, that’s something I can take comfort it. I love a story when the Emperor has clothes.

#3) If the Road to the White House is Long, the Road to Change is Longer I think Barack Obama has contributed something very, very important to this campaign, and that is the need for change. If it weren’t for Obama’s candidacy, I am not sure if the Democrats including Hillary would be focused on that during this campaign. So in that way, Obama’s push for change (and his early success at marketing it) has forced the Clinton camp to address it in her own campaign. Some would call this piggy-backing, some would call it too-little-too-late. I call it a little unnecessary. You see, when the balloons stop falling at the Convention in Denver, the rally chants subside, the supporters go home, and the lights go dark – you’re left with an excruciatingly important and gut-wrenchingly lonely job – the Presidency of the United States of America.

I won’t speak to whether or not Obama can go the distance because there’s always that possibility. It’s too early to be cutting him down and saying he’s not ready or he’s not fit or – as Bill so painfully said – that his campaign is a giant ‘fairy tale.’ It’s too early in his career to know that. What I do know, however, is that Hillary is on mile 22 or something of a marathon political regimen that shows no sign of stopping any time soon. I can understand how this turns people off. She can be seen as a lifer, a career politician, a *gasp* Washington INSIDER!

All of these accusations carry their element of truth. Hillary can certainly come off as cold and calculating. But to me, no other job in the world is as fitting for a cold and calculating individual than the presidency of the United States, commander in chief, leader of the free world, decider of who lives and who dies in times of war, chief architect of modern democracy. To her detractors I say, if cold and calculating won’t get you any desired change, neither will hope and a prayer. Its not that I don’t like Obama, it’s that I feel his candidacy is about eight years premature. Right now we have a candidate who has gone the distance, and the presidency of the United States is too important to be banking hopes of change on untested and unproven records.

I have no lack of respect for Senator Obama and the things that he has put on the discussion table in 2008, but after eight years of deterioration, I place a higher premium on change through experience than on change through hope.

It’s just too important for Democrats to win not only in November 2008, but in the eight long and lonely years that will follow.

Think about it. But whatever you do, be sure to vote on Super Tuesday!.

Just Who is the EPA Protecting?

In a decision made last month, the Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Stephen L. Johnson blocked California and a host of other states that were poised to follow the Golden State from cutting greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles. Testifying before the Senate’s Environment and Public Works Committee yesterday, Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (D) said that his state had been prepared to floow California’s lead and cut vehicle emissions by about 30 percent by 2016.

Sounds like something the EPA would be happy about, right? Au contrair my friends. This is the Bush administration, after all.

Johnson was forced to answer to some feisty Senators, including Republican Sen. James Inhofe, who demanded to know why the EPA was in the business of striking down tough anti-pollution regulations. Johnson said his decision complies with the Clean Air Act. To set its own standards, he said, California needed to prove that it had a ‘compelling and extraordinary problem.” But, since greenhouse gases and the climate change that they cause are a global problem, California does not have its own extraordinary need.

What Johnson is really wanting to say: “Look, we know that greenhouse gases cause climate change, and that that is harmful to the American public. But California has no right to out-do the federal government when it comes to gas emission regulations. Doing so would complicate matters and it would go against the interests that truly serve the EPA’s needs.”

I want to know two things: 1) if the states do not have the means to demonstrate an extraordinary need on their own, who the hell does? The EPA? That’s a scary thought. 2) Who owns the EPA?

Seriously?