The Play Book: A War Over “Change”

60 days out of Election Day, Barack Obama can’t afford to take the Palin bait

The finale of the GOP Convention last Thursday in St. Paul signified a number of dramatic changes to this election cycle. First, with the surprise pick of Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as McCain’s running mate, the Republican party has found a new and exciting figure to rally around. As her blistering acceptance speech on Wednesday night shows, Gov. Palin can pack a punch and, perhaps more importantly, she offers key conservative credentials to the GOP ticket. Governor Palin will undoubtedly be a permanent fixture in the conservative’s hall of fame, even if she were to fail this Fall.

But where the GOP Convention was heavy on drama and excitement, it was noticeably light on substance. There was no talk of the economy or combating the growing Russian appetite for spherical authority. There were few policy positions and certainly no five point plans to mull over. In other words, it was precisely what the McCain camp wanted: it was a platform of narratives, which it believes is the key to winning independent voters this Fall. The McCain camp has hedged it’s bets that their candidate’s stories – and not their positions – will be the guide to victory in 08, and it might just work.

Gov. Palin has wowed the Republican base, but her reception among independents has yet to be seen

Here’s a look at what we should expect of each campaign as we head into the 60 day ‘home stretch’:

JOHN MCCAIN

Deviate yourself from Bush, but not the base
John McCain did an interesting thing at the beginning of his acceptance speech Thursday, which has been generally considered an underwhelming performance by commentators and pundits (but honestly, what could one expect after Gov. Palin’s revolutionary speech – more on her later). In a moment that will surely be used in Democratic attack ads later in the Fall, John McCain paid tribute President Bush for leading us “through these dark days” after September 11.

A risky move.

The rest of McCain’s acceptance speech seemed to recognize the political risk involved with getting too cozy with the most unpopular president in modern American history. McCain laid out a sweeping – if not vague – new face to conservatism, a decisive movement away from the admitted failure of Bush policies towards a “bi-partisan” and “reform” oriented administration. His shout-out to Bush is significant in that it highlights the fine balance the McCain campaign must strike between consolidating the GOP base (most of whom still love the President) and reaching out to independents and Democrats who aren’t exactly enamored with the Republican party at the moment.

McCain is waging a tricky campaign to get voters to forget about the last eight years (“economic troubles? what economic troubles!?”). This is best highlighted in campaign manager Rick Davis’ statement that this election will be about narratives, and not about issues. Translation: make McCain and Palin likeable enough to voters to win over their trust. This is straight out of the 2000 and 2004 Republican playbook, and given the GOP’s recent record in presidential campaigns, the Democrats can not afford to sidestep the likeability campaign.

Sarah Barracuda, the real change agent?
What happens when a fresh-faced, gun-toting, baby-feeding, lifelong NRA member bursts on to the Republican spotlight and promises to ‘break some china’ in Washington?

Magic.

The Republicans struck gold (or was it oil?) in finding Sarah Palin. And Democrats can argue amongst themselves all they want about the motives or the perceived gender politics behind the selection (as I myself have done), but it doesn’t really matter: Governor Palin is here and she’s here to stay. And the selection was brilliant. Who better to run with an oratorically challenged, slightly boring, and politically moderate John McCain than a fiery young and attractive “reformer?”

Palin accomplishes two critical tasks for the ticket: she closes the enthusiasm gap that existed within the party and, more strategically, she rounds out a new campaign message to America – that John McCain stands for change.

By now, McCain has used so many campaign messages that it’s getting difficult to remember them all. This “change” message is new, and it has somehow struck a chord with Republicans who are wise enough to distance themselves from the president  but willing to seize on Senator Obama’s wildly popular campaign message. So far, it has worked with the die-hard Republican crowd – it has yet to be tested against more discerning moderates and McCain has yet to back up this message of change with more solid policy. As Obama is quick to point out, McCain voted with the administration 90% of the time in the last 8 years – That doesn’t bode well for a message of ‘change.’

BARACK OBAMA

Focus on the economy
New numbers came out yesterday morning showing that unemployment has reached a five year high. Obama was quick to pin this as the latest example of how Republicans are simply unable to grapple with the economy, and it is a compelling argument. The economy is in a tailspin, and while more and more Americans are jobless – John McCain wants to talk about narratives. This is an important difference between the two campaigns that Obama must not (and so far has not) ignore. To play up the difference, Obama should continue pushing his middle class tax cut, which is supposed to alleviate tax burdens on working families while ending the generous corporate tax breaks on America’s largest companies during the Bush era. It will also show that Obama is tough on the economy, and has real solutions to what has so far become the Republicans’ Achilles heel.

Sen. Biden (D-DE) would be smart not to condescend or attack Palin

If Obama strikes the economy while the iron is hot, we can reasonably expect him to win some confidence of middle class voters who are shaky over the economy. Remember, these voters are looking for real solutions, not the sort of political red meat that dominated the GOP convention.

Ignore Palin
Nobody can rightfully deny the star-power that Palin has amassed within the Republican party in the last few days. That said, it would be wise of the Obama campaign to let that play out as it will. Palin is looking for a fight. Republicans would love nothing more than to see Obama lock fists with their freshly minted self proclaimed “bulldog”. If Obama allows that (through either himself or Biden), it simply undermines the luster around his candidacy. Engaging in Palin’s attacks will make Obama look, well…small.

And that is the brilliance behind the Palin selection. McCain certainly threw a curve ball to the Obama campaign. Obama was right to condemn the media frenzy surrounding Palin’s pregnant daughter. It was also right to refrain from bashing her perceived inexperience at foreign policy. I suspect the Obama team understands that an attack on Palin will only fan the flames on the Republican side of the aisle, and they are too focused on what will actually win them this election: undecided moderate voters.

With the addition of Palin, we saw the McCain camp take a hard turn to the right before making a predictable turn to the center. As Obama hones in on his arguments as to why he is indeed the veritable agent of change (and has been since the beginning, not since it was discovered that the issue polls well), I suspect we will see that he is well ahead of the Republicans in winning over Independents, and thus comfortably ahead in the polls.

The Play Book: GOP’s Gender Politics

Before I begin my argument as to why Sen. John McCain’s VP pick is actually good news for Democrats, I want to pose a very simple question:

If this one term Governor of Alaska, former mayor of a town of 9,000, with zero – not limited – ZERO foreign policy experience was a man – would John McCain have picked him to be only a heartbeat away from the Oval Office? Second in command?

I’ll leave that to you to answer. On with my argument.

McCain’s choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska is supposed to be an upsetting one to Democrats. The McCain inner circle was no doubt giddy at the prospect of “sticking it to” Democrats who have lauded their propulsion of a highly qualified and trailblazing woman – Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton – to the forefront of political debate. With a female at the helm of McCain’s presidential bid – Americans the world over will similarly laud the Republican campaign for it’s devotion to women’s rights and equality, right? Right?

In her coming-out speech, Palin mentioned that Hillary Clinton put 18 million cracks in the hardest glass ceiling and that women everywhere can now “shatter that ceiling.” Translation: “Clinton did the hard work and now I can play the gender card to translate some of those votes into McCain votes”

Democrats should be encouraged by the McCain camp’s strategy of reacting to what is going on in the Dem’s side of the aisle. It means that Democrats are still leading the national dialogue. I’ll be bold here and say that there is no way that Governor Palin, as well-spoken and as polished as she is, would have EVER made the VP ticket with the very man who has made routine bashing of Senator Barack Obama’s purported lack of foreign policy credentials a pillar of his campaign if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic VP pick.

The selection of Governor Sarah Palin is a rouse and comedic political stagecraft to any smart and self-respecting Clinton supporter. To think that you can put just any woman on a ticket and expect to get the same amount of support that took Hillary Clinton 35 years  of public service, 8 years in the White House, and 23 victorious presidential primary races to earn is nothing short of insulting. Sarah Palin has nothing on Hillary Rodham Clinton.

But what is insulting to me doesn’t rule out a victory. It will be interesting to see how women feel about this latest bit of classic McCain reactionary strategy. For the short run, at least, Democrats should take comfort in knowing that McCain appears to still be one step behind them, trying to salvage whatever supporter defects from their ranks.

At the very least, it puts the question of experience – so central to Senator McCain’s argument against Senator Obama – off the table. Can he honestly paint the Obama-Biden ticket as inexperienced after he brings Palin on board? It may not be impossible – but it will surely be difficult, and that is more good news for Democrats.

Familiar, New Lines Drawn in ‘Vida la Vida’

We’ve heard the arguments made by Coldplay’s vocal detractors many times before: the senseless lyrics, the dramatic flair (‘is that an organ i’m hearing!?’), Chris Martin’s insistence on being compared to U2, the Beatles, and other untouchables, among a long laundry list of others. While each point carries its own degree of truth, few can deny that Coldplay’s hit-making formula has served them well. Very well.

In the British rock quartet’s fourth album Viva La Vida or Death and All His Friends, thoughtful, mid-tempo numbers draw upon their trademark sound while changing up some things from their last album debut in 2004 – X&Y. The album is an effort by the band to embrace experimentation and break from the formula that defined their previous albums. The results are mixed – which is good news for fans of that sound.

The album’s experimental thesis lies in it’s opening track ‘Life in Technicolor,’ a two minute instrumental slowly building tempo and punctuated by a stylistic  holler from Martin. Just as we approach what feels like a climax, the track abruptly ends. Surely they’re teasing us, right? My interest is picqued.

What follows doesn’t disappoint. Coldplay infuses elements of the fiddle, the organ, and hand clapping to create a sound with the same gravity as before, but happier. Sure, some of the tracks (‘Cemeteries of London,’ ‘42,’ ‘Death and All His Friends’) sound and feel like the same old depressing Coldplay. Fortunately, they are complemented by uplifting and rather catchy tracks as ‘Viva La Vida’ (the album’s first single), ‘Yes,’ and ‘Lovers in Japan’

I used to rule the world / seas would rise when I gave the word / now in the morning I sleep alone / sweep the streets I used to roam – ‘Viva La Vida’

‘Viva La Vida’ is definitive not only because it is the first single of the album (a song that radio stations will surely inundate us with this summer), it is perhaps Martin’s best vocal performance. Similar to ‘Fix You’ and ‘Speed of Sound’ in X&Y and ‘Clocks’ in A Rush of Blood to the Head, ‘Viva La Vida’ is at the emotional heart of Martin’s current project. The sound of drums and a symphony of strings send this song into that lofty field of musical drama and self-importance that have won Coldplay it’s fair share of deep admirers and cynics.

You might be a big fish in a little pond / doesn’t mean you’ve won / ‘cus along will come a bigger one / and you’ll be lost – ‘Lost!’

Although ‘Viva La Vida’ is going to get all of the air play this summer, ‘Lost!’ is bound to be the band’s next hit. More catchy than any of it’s peers, ‘Lost!’ combines the organ, drums, and hand clapping to create an uncharacteristically upbeat and airy sound. It isn’t full of itself. It isn’t anthemic. It’s simply happy.

Viva La Vida or Death and All His Friends won’t win Coldplay any new fans, and it’s goal of producing a whole new experimental sound is only half developed.  It won’t bury the band’s reputation for drama or silly lyrics. It does, however, present a faithful reincarnation of a sound to which we’ve grown familiar.

To a fan who wants Coldplay to keep with its roots, there is nothing more you could ask for.

Viva La Vida or Death and All His Friends is out in stores now.

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Why you’ll love it: how often do your ears get relief from the same old recycled Coldplay songs on the radio? This is NEW stuff. Also, it’s catchy and a solid addition to the Coldplay library.

Why you’ll hate it: you always hated Coldplay to begin with.

Morning Caffeine

Good Morning, DC!

Mugabe’s Opposition Party Under Seige, Seeks Refuge // Zimbabwe opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai said today that he was ‘under seige’ by the ruling party, led by President Robert Mugabe. Tsvangirai arrived at the Netherlands’ embassy in Harare on Sunday, hours after he announced he was withdrawing from Friday’s runoff against incumbent Robert Mugabe. A source within Tsvangirai’s party, the Movement for Democratic Change, said he sought refuge after police arrested three of his bodyguards — a claim which police deny. President Mugabe faces the closest election of his presidency, having narrowly defeated Tsvangirai in an election earlier this year. A runoff vote is scheduled for this Friday.

Gas Prices Down // That’s right. The national average price of gas has gone down today – by three quarters of one cent. The average is now $4.07 per gallon. 

Clinton Saddled with Debt // Sen. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign isn’t entirely finished yet. That’s because her campaign is still $20 million in debt, including $10 million that she owes herself in loans. In a message sent via email to her supporters yesterday, Clinton appealed to her donors to help her close out her massive tab. “By helping us pay off our campaign debt, you’re not just helping Hillary elect a Democratic president and grow our majority in Congress. You’re making it possible for her to work as hard as she can on the issues we care about.” Under current campaign finance law, Clinton must pay back her loans before the Party’s convention in August, or she is eligible for only $250,000 in reimbursements. 

 

 

McCain Campaign Aide: Terrorist Attack Would Help McCain

A senior advisor to U.S. Senator John McCain’s campaign told Fortune Magazine in an interview that another terrorist attack on American soil “would be a big advantage for him.” Charlie Black has since expressed regret for making the remarks.

It’s good to hear somebody stands to benefit from another terrorist attack.

Afternoon Caffeine

Good afternoon, DC!

Long-time Clinton Loyalist Joins Obama’s VP Search Committee // In a move that indicates female voters who were once tied to Senator Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid won’t be as stubborn to join Obama’s campaign as some analysts predicted, Patti Solis Doyle announced she will join the Illinois Senator’s search committee for a VP. Doyle stepped down from her post as Clinton’s national campaign manager in February after losing a streak of primaries to Obama, giving him a lead that he never relinquished. The New York Times reported last week that Doyle and Clinton have not spoken since she departed the campaign.

United Airlines Announces iPod & iPhone Connectivity // Chicago based air carrier United Airlines said today that their planes will provide in-flight connectivity to popular Apple computer products, the iPhone and the iPod. Travelers, beginning today, will be able to connect their personal devices to the 15.4in TV screens equipped on the airline’s widebody aircraft used for intercontinental long-haul flights. “United will continue to provide services and technology that makes our customers’ travel experience more relaxed and enjoyable,” stated United’s executive vice president and chief customer officer Graham Atkinson. They should have started with their on-time performance.

“My concern is that the Bush administration, in a weakened state politically, ends up trying to rush an agreement that in some ways might be binding to the next administration, whether it’s my administration or Senator McCain’s administration. The (Iraqi) foreign minister agreed that the next administration should not be bound by an agreement that’s currently made.”  – Senator Barack Obama, presumptive Democratic nominee

Obama Plans Trip to Iraq, Afghanistan Before November Election // Senator Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, this morning announced that he intends to visit Iraq and Afghanistan before the November election. Senator McCain proposed a joint trip to the region but Obama refused, calling the invitation a political stunt. The Republican National Committee has since published a clock marking the 900+ days since Mr. Obama last visited Iraq in early 2006, stressing how much conditions have changed on the ground. Mr. Obama did not elaborate as to when precisely his visit will occur, but stressed that the goal of his visit is to ensure that the Bush administration refrain from making policy that will obligate the next administration toward any course of action.

Grab Your Children, Run for the Hills – Gay Marriage is Underway

On June 16, 2008 – The end of the world begins. And it begins in California.

That’s because today the State of California begins legally sanctioning same-sex marriage. And in a particularly cruel blow to straight people everywhere, they even have the nerve to call it marriage! No more of that civil-union-separate-but-equal-consolation-prize-bullshit we’ve been feeding gays in America to shut them up.

No, no: we’ve gone to new levels now. We’re in unchartered territory. The territory that allows two living human beings to acknowledge a very real and strong thread that we all share as humans: love.

Gay, straight, Christian, Atheist, black, brown, poor, wealthy, guilty, innocent, and lonely human beings. What do they all have in common? The capacity to love, among other things.

Some people, however, are distracted by another human commonality: the capacity to hate. They fix their attention on the ‘immoral’ or the ‘devious’ view of a love that does not look or sound like their own. They howl at and condemn human beings they do not even know for cementing their feelings for someone of the same sex.

These same people tell us in church, on the news, and in rallies that gay marriage will break family values. This argument is uttered, without the slightest sense of irony, as the opposite-sex-marriage failure rate hovers above 50%, as Britney Spears gets a straight marriage annulled faster than it takes Bill O’Reilly to get off by phone sex, and church after church after church is rocked with a new scandal.

We can blame gays (who are making an honest and very human move forward with their love) for our repeated failure to raise families and marriages correctly. In the end, love conquers hate. We can find evidence of this in a new CBS nationwide poll, which finds more and more Americans believe that gays deserve some sort of legal recognition – and over 30% of Americans believe that gay marriage should be legal; the highest percentage ever recorded since CBS began conducting the poll in 2004 (source).

The tide is turning. Elements of our society will scream and kick and resist, but in the end – it lurches forward. It progresses. You can either choose to love or to hate. For the interim, I guess, run for the hills.

Shit’s going down in California.

Afternoon Caffeine

Good afternoon, DC!
Toll zones, government bail-outs, and St. Paddy’s Day: it’s Afternoon Caffeine!

Bush Officials Criticized for Privatizing Transportation Projects
The Department of Transportation has been criticized for pushing the nation’s roads and highways towards privatization with a new $1 billion pilot program that tests “congestion pricing” on on toll roads and bridges in San Francisco, New York, Minneapolis, Seattle, and Miami. “Its almost un-American that we should be forced to sit and be stuck in traffic,” says one White House liaison involved in the matter. Some Democrats and Republicans are crying foul. [Washington Post]

Priced to Go
As part of a watershed deal, JPMorgan and the Federal Reserve will guarantee the huge trading obligations of the troubled firm Bear Stearns, which was driven to the brink of bankruptcy by what amounted to a run on the bank. The deal has JPM spending $2 a share to acquire the investment firm. Even with the frantic rescue operation, world markets were roiled as the trading day began. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index ended down 3.7 percent, while European markets closed down about 4 percent. [New York Times]

Former New Jersey Governor admits threesome, adds to Democratic shame [SFGate]

The Hostage Vote: Is it All or Nothing for ‘Generation Obama?’

Never in our recent history has the youth vote mattered so much to a presidential election. We’re turning out in record numbers from Iowa, California, Texas, and Ohio – and the politicians and media have taken notice. Long a fickle and overlooked voting demographic, the youth vote has taken center stage in 2008 as both Democratic contenders – Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton – attempt to woo as much support as they can muster. There could be any number of factors that account for this sudden spike in youth participation in the U.S. presidential primaries, but what is so different about 2008 from the previous campaigns?

Ron Dzwonkowski, a columnist for the Detroit Free Press, thinks he has the answer.

In Sunday’s column, Dzwonkowski writes:

If — and it’s still an if — the numbers just don’t add up for U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic presidential nominee, but the party, through its arcane rules and superdelegates process, gives it to her anyway, Democrats will pay dearly, for a generation or more.

And why is it that the party would suffer so much for a generation or more? Dzwonkowski explains:

Instead of re-establishing themselves as the party in power for perhaps the next 20 years, Democrats could be effectively handing the White House to Republican John McCain and alienating up to 30 million young voters who have gotten engaged in politics this year for the first time because of Barack Obama. If these voters feel that Obama has been cheated out of a chance to run for president, they and the hordes more of them becoming eligible to vote in the years ahead, will not easily return to the Democratic fold. Even if they like the party’s principles, they will distrust its processes.

Do it for the kids, Dems. Vote for Barack Obama or the kids will get really upset and they’ll start crying. Nevermind the fact that he just erroneously credited Barack Obama for pulling out all 30 million of those young voters while completely ignoring the role that Senators Hillary Clinton or John McCain had in pulling out young supporters of their own. It gets worse:

More likely, young voters sit out the election (as they have in the past) and McCain wins and Democrats dissolve again into their bickering, finger-pointing ways while an emerging generation that desperately wants to see a stronger, safer and better America backs out of the political system.

Ignoring for a moment one’s specific leanings to either Obama, Clinton, or McCain – Dzwonkowski’s scenario is just plain offensive to young Americans who exercise their own thoughts or beliefs by voting. His portrait of the modern young American – the so-called next greatest generation that is likely to push this country forward much like the GI Generation of World War II – as stubbornly and blindly adherent to one candidate and one candidate only is offensive.

What Dzwonkowski seems to miss is that the ‘youth vote’ is not a single-minded lot. Since he is a few generations removed from the very voting generation he claims to speak for, perhaps we should cut him some slack. After all, older generations have long been trying to figure us out. The truth of the matter is, however, we move too quickly to be pinned down by generalizations or stereotypes. Unlike previous generations, we have the distinct advantage of instant access to information, exposure to a much greater world via globalization and media, and last but certainly not least, the power of education.

What all of these advantages leads us to, Mr. Dzwonkowski, is not all or nothing in 2008. By threatening others that the children are going to either get their way with the White House or “sit this one out” is dead wrong. We’re not children and we’re not spoiled. We’re industrious, resourceful, and smart enough to know to how to change America. Now whether that leads us to vote for Obama or McCain or Clinton is based on our own forethought and analysis, and not your clumsy generalizations of what you think you know about ‘Generation Obama’.

Whatever that is.

Brand This Man!

A note to Democrats:

While you were busying yourselves this weekend with more talk about Obama’s pastor or Hillary’s hairstyle, this man was off looking mighty presidential in Iraq. Good for McCain. Bad for Democrats.

Somebody (I’m looking at you, Dean) get off your ass and brand this man.